Impact of heatwaves on all-cause mortality in India: A comprehensive multi-city study.

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, posing a significant threat to population health. In India, with the world's largest population, heatwaves occur annually but have not been comprehensively studied. Accordingly, we evaluated the association between heatwaves and all-cause mortality and quantifying the attributable mortality fraction in India. METHODS: We obtained all-cause mortality counts for ten cities in India (2008-2019) and estimated daily mean temperatures from satellite data. Our main extreme heatwave was defined as two-consecutive days with an intensity above the 97th annual percentile. We estimated city-specific heatwave associations through generalised additive Poisson regression models, and meta-analysed the associations. We reported effects as the percentage change in daily mortality, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), comparing heatwave vs non-heatwave days. We further evaluated heatwaves using different percentiles (95th, 97th, 99th) for one, two, three and five-consecutive days. We also evaluated the influence of heatwave duration, intensity and timing in the summer season on heatwave mortality, and estimated the number of heatwave-related deaths. FINDINGS: Among âˆ¼ 3.6 million deaths, we observed that temperatures above 97th percentile for 2-consecutive days was associated with a 14.7 % (95 %CI, 10.3; 19.3) increase in daily mortality. Alternative heatwave definitions with higher percentiles and longer duration resulted in stronger relative risks. Furthermore, we observed stronger associations between heatwaves and mortality with higher heatwave intensity. We estimated that around 1116 deaths annually (95 %CI, 861; 1361) were attributed to heatwaves. Shorter and less intense definitions of heatwaves resulted in a higher estimated burden of heatwave-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence of heatwave impacts on daily mortality. Longer and more intense heatwaves were linked to an increased mortality risk, however, resulted in a lower burden of heatwave-related deaths. Both definitions and the burden associated with each heatwave definition should be incorporated into planning and decision-making processes for policymakers.

Vertical distribution of smoke aerosols over upper Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Attenuated backscatter profiles retrieved by the space borne active lidar CALIOP on-board CALIPSO satellite were used to measure the vertical distribution of smoke aerosols and to compare it against the ECMWF planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) over the smoke dominated region of Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Initially, the relative abundance of smoke aerosols was investigated considering multiple satellite retrieved aerosol optical properties. Only the upper IGP was selectively considered for CALIPSO retrieval based on prevalence of smoke aerosols. Smoke extinction was found to contribute 2-50% of the total aerosol extinction, with strong seasonal and altitudinal attributes. During winter (DJF), smoke aerosols contribute almost 50% of total aerosol extinction only near to the surface while in post-monsoon (ON) and monsoon (JJAS), relative contribution of smoke aerosols to total extinction was highest at about 8 km height. There was strong diurnal variation in smoke extinction, evident throughout the year, with frequent abundance of smoke particles at lower height (<4 km) during daytime compared to higher height during night (>4 km). Smoke injection height also varied considerably during rice (ON: 0.71 ±â€¯0.65 km) and wheat (AM: 2.34 ±â€¯1.34 km) residue burning period having a significant positive correlation with prevailing PBLH. Partitioning smoke AOD against PBLH into the free troposphere (FT) and boundary layer (BL) yield interesting results. BL contribute 36% (16%) of smoke AOD during daytime (nighttime) and the BL-FT distinction increased particularly at night. There was evidence that despite travelling efficiently to FT, major proportion of smoke AOD (50-80%) continue to remain close to the surface (<3 km) thereby, may have greater implications on regional climate, air quality, smoke transport and AOD-particulate modelling.